Automotive News World Top 10 February 2016 - SIBEJO-

BYD Tang - Best Selling PHEV

Models - Nissan Leaf is Back

The global EV market continues to grow at rapid pace, with almost 35.000 units delivered in February, representing a 44% growth rate YoY.

In February the Nissan Leaf secured once again the leadership, with 5.253 units, its best result in 11 months, representing a 43% sales increase YoY.

In Second we have the BYD Tang, the 2.098 units are a somewhat disappointing score, but it might be explained by manufacturer prioritizing other models (e6, Qin...). 

Below these two, there is a really close race between the #3 Tesla Model S and the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, both ended the month separated by just four units, but the excitement doesn't end there, as the race for the following positions are also close, the #6 Renault Zoe is closing in to the #5 BAIC E-Series EV, with 104 units between them, and the same can be said between the #7 BMW i3 and #8 Chevrolet Volt.

Final note for the first Top 10 presence of the Audi A3 e-Tron, with the german hatch now being sold in the USA, it looks that the Audi model will become a frequent guest here. 

Pl	WORLD	Feb.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	5.253	9.716	14	2
2	BYD Tang	2.098	6.110	9	8
3	Tesla Model S	2.631	4.746	7	1
4 5 6	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV BAIC E-Series EV Renault Zoe	2.759 1.576 1.666	4.742 3.222 3.118	7 5 4	3 11 7
7	BMW i3	1.228	2.349	3	5
8	Chevrolet Volt	1.228	2.318	3	9
9	Volkswagen e-Golf	953	2.005	3	13
10	Audi A3 e-Tron	971	1.922	3	14
	TOTAL	34.714	71.409

Manufacturers -  Nissan #1

The 30 kWh reignited Nissan recovered the First Place, with BYD being left for the moment in Second Place, while Tesla and Mitsubishi continue the race for the Bronze Medal, this time with the advantage going for the japanese manufacturer. 

There are other points of interest below, BMW is resisting VW advances in the race for #5, with Renault not that far away, while Chevrolet and Ford re-enter the Top 10, benefiting from the Chinese-New-Year-derived slow month of the chinese manufacturers.

Pl	WORLD	Feb.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan	5.504	10.197	14	4
2	BYD	4.378	9.771	14	1
3	Mitsubishi	3.241	5.709	8	3
4	Tesla	3.031	5.517	8	2
5 6 7	BMW Volkswagen Renault	2.377 2.491 2.298	4.647 4.545 4.278	7 6 6	6 5 8
8	BAIC	1.704	3.350	5	12
9	Chevrolet	1.449	2.684	4	11
10	Ford	1.521	2.550	4	10

Automotive News Markets Roundup February 2016 - SIBEJO-

Renault Twizy in Colombia

Trends in the G8

- Tesla Model S and Volt II run for #1;

- Leaf surges to record levels in Japan, stirs local EV Market (0.97% vs 0.54% in '15);

- Outlander PHEV, King Of England, in moderate growth market (1.18% vs 1.07%);

- Zoe rules in France, e-Golf in Norway, both markets are in record levels (1.66% for FR, 27.68% in NO);

- Close race for the Top Spots in Germany;

- The Revenge of All-Electric Cars in The Netherlands, with the EV share crumbling from 9.6% to 1.5%;

- BYD goes interstellar in China.


Trends in other Markets

- Austria and Belgium surpass the 1% barrier;

- BMW i3 and Smart Fortwo ED lead Slovenia's growth (0.23% vs 0.18% in '15);

- Volvo XC90 PHEV pulls Finland's EV Share to new heights (1.24% vs 0.61%);

- BMW i3 excels in the Czech Republic;

- Renault Twizy success story continues in Colombia, with 18 new units in 2016.

Automotive News World Top 10 January 2016 - SIBEJO-

Next #1 in EV-land?

Models - Nissan Leaf back to #1

The global EV market continues to grow at rapid pace, with the 35.000 units delivered in January representing over 40% growth YoY, if sales continue to grow at this rate, we will reach nearly 800.000 units by December 31st, but...

...The Chinese and US EV market worst sales months are January and February, and Europe is still in hangover-mode from the the sales rush of last December, so my guess is that in March the growth rate will increase even more, meaning that we might be heading for the symbolic One Million EV's Landmark in 2016...

Yep, one million units in one year, now THAT would be something to remembre. 

In the meantime, let's look at what we have got, in January: The Nissan Leaf is back at the leadership, something that wouldn't be much of a surprise, if in the previous month it hadn't been Fifth...

In Second we have the BYD Tang, the best position ever achieved by a Chinese model, and that's with it's home market still in Chinese-New-Year-Mode, now imagine how high will get once China gets up and running in March... 

Below these two, there are two usual suspects, with the Tesla Model S and Outlander PHEV getting ready to resume the race for #3, in the second half of this Top 10, there are na additional three models coming from China, substanting the record 35% share that Chinese carmakers currently have in the EV market.

Pl	WORLD	Jan.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	4.448	4.448	13	2
2	BYD Tang	4.012	4.012	11	8
3	Tesla Model S	2.116	2.116	6	1
4 5 6	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV BAIC E-Series EV Renault Zoe	1.967 1.646 1.452	1.967 1.646 1.452	6 5 4	3 11 7
7	JAC i EV	1.427	1.427	4	16
8	SAIC Roewe 550 PHEV	1.153	1.153	3	15
9	Chevrolet Volt	1.090	1.090	3	9
10	BMW i3	1.085	1.085	3	5
	TOTAL	35.521	35.521

Manufacturers -  BYD #1

BYD started the year as it ended 2015, leading the EV charge, followed by a 30 kWh reignited Nissan, with Tesla and Mitsubishi continuing the race for the Bronze Medal. 

In the low end of the manufacturers ranking, the big news are the Top 10 positions of the chinese BAIC and JAC, pushing down Chevrolet and Ford.

Pl	WORLD	Jan.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	BYD	5.471	5.471	15	1
2	Nissan	4.676	4.676	13	4
3	Tesla	2.486	2.486	7	2
4	Mitsubishi	2.446	2.446	7	3
5 6 7	Volkswagen BMW Renault	2.057 2.039 1.980	2.057 2.039 1.980	6 6 6	5 6 8
8	Zotye	1.678	1.678	5	9
9	BAIC	1.646	1.646	5	12
10	JAC	1.427	1.427	4	17

Automotive News Markets Roundup December 2015 (Special Edition) - SIBEJO-

I. A Year Ago - Hits and Misses

A year ago, i made some forecasts regarding 2015, let's see how they worked out:

USA

* Leaf will be #1 - Miss, it was #2, behind the Tesla Model S;

* 150.000 sales for the US EV market - 115k units, significantly below the forecast.

Japan

* Leaf #1 - Not really, Mitsu has finally beaten Nissan's hatch;

* 32.000 units - 25k sales, big disappointment.

France

* Renault Zoe #1 - Hit, how hard could it be to miss this one?

* 19.000 units - Frankly above, with 27k sales, the french EV market has finally found its Joie de Vivre.

Germany

* German Car #1 - Big miss, the Kia Soul EV came out of nowhere to win this one.

* 20.000 sales for the German EV Market - 24k sales, (finally) a forecast hitting the target (Sort of). 

Netherlands

* Outlander PHEV #1 - Hit, in one of the most dramatic twists of 2015, the Outlander PHEV took the leadership crown in the last month of the year from the head ceiling of the VW Golf GTE; 

* 19.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - 43k sales, a tremendous jump, although motivated by fiscal changes...

Norway

* Leaf #1 - Big Miss, it didn't stood a chance to beat the VW e-Golf, ending the year in #3;

* 25.000 units in Norway - 35k beating even the best expectations. 

China

* BYD Qin #1 - Hit, but Qin was losing power in the last months of the year; 

* 120.000 units - A number that sounded ambitious at the time, until we saw what really happened, with 207k sales sold. In One Year. 

II. Engines of Growth

* By EV Share 

One of them is pretty easy to discover, after all, the Norwegian EV performance continues to be the poster-child for the EV Scene, with the market share now at 23% vs 14% in 2014, or the good surprise, if inflated, that happened in The Netherlands, with the EV Share jumping from 3.9% to 9.6%.

But there were other surprises, like Denmark (2.29% now vs 0.88% in '14), Sweden (2.62% in '15 vs 1.66% in '14) or Switzerland (1.98% vs 0.75%). But the most impressive market was Hong Kong, with the EV Share there shooting from 0,44% in '14 to 4.84% now! And all (Well, mostly) thanks to those 2.221 Teslas sold there...

* By Volume

EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case China made all the headlines, with 150.000 more units being sold in 2015 than in the previous year...

Others have also progressed, like The Netherlands (From 15k to 43k) or Norway (34k vs 20k), while the UK (14k to 28k), continues to outpace the growth of France (27k vs 16k) and Germany (24k vs 13k), as it prepares itself to be the largest european EV Market in...2017?


III. 2015 vs 2014

Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2014 (Previous winner):

Leaf -  Italy (Like in 2014); Estonia (Leaf in 2013 and 2014); Ireland (Leaf since 2011).

Outlander PHEV - Netherlands (Like in 2013 and 2014); Japan (Nissan Leaf); UK (Like in 2014); Sweden (Like in 2014); Australia (Like in 2014); New Zealand (Like in 2014); Spain (Nissan Leaf); Portugal (BMW i3 in 2014); Poland (BMW i3 in 2014); Romania (Like in 2014).

Zoe - France (Like in 2013 and 2014); Slovenia (Tesla Model S in '14).

BMW i3 - Czech Republic (Like in 2014); South Africa.

Model S - Switzerland (Like in 2014); Belgium (Like in 2014); USA (Nissan Leaf); Canada (Chevrolet Volt); Denmark (Nissan Leaf); Austria (Renault Zoe in '14); Hong Kong (BMW i3 in '14); Finland (Outlander PHEV in '14).

Renault Samsung SM3 ZE - South Korea (Since 2013).

BYD Qin - China (Like in 2014).

VW e-Golf - Norway (In '14 - Nissan Leaf); Iceland (Nissan Leaf in '14).

Kia Soul EV - Germany (In '14 - BMW i3)

Examining this, we can that the Chevy Volt was wiped out from the map, losing Canada, while the Nissan Leaf lost six(!) countries in one year, two of them to a direct competitor (Norway and Iceland to the e-Golf), holding on to just three countries.

Mitsubishi's SUV is now the largest collector of #1's, with 10 markets crowning it as the Best Seller, with the most important conquest being its home market, Japan.

But the biggest winner of 2015 was the Tesla Model S, with six new markets won in 2015, which together with the two that it already had, sums eight markets where the Model S is Best Seller.

Automotive News 2015 Top EV Automotive Groups - SIBEJO-

The Top 10 Automotive EV Groups reflects the 2015 volume of plug-ins sold by each Manufacturing Group, and to put that into context, i have decided to compare it with the all-time volumes:

		Sales '15	%	Total Sales	%
	Renault-Nissan	74,734	14	291.345	22
	BYD	61.726	11	87.873	7
	VW (VAG)	58.807	11	73.070	6
	Tesla	51.598	9	110.271	8
	Mitsubishi	48.203	9	134.966	10
	BMW	33.415	6	54.159	4
	Kandi	28.055	5	39.430	3
	Zotye	24.516	4	33.527	3

A few facts are visible here:

- The Renault-Nissan Alliance leadership continues to dwindle, losing ground to the competition each passing year;

- BYD has surpassed the Volkswagen Group in the race for Second Place, and given the bullish goals of the chinese brand, i wouldn't be surprised to see it in the leadership a year from now;

- Tesla and Mitsubishi continue to ride the plug-in wave, while Ford and GM disappeared from the top spots, reflecting the flat sales in the US and the lack of investment in other markets;

- BMW's bet in Plug-ins is being rewarded with an important role in the EV scene, with new models arriving in 2016, the german brand can only see its share grow;

- Finally, Kandi and Zotye, now #7 and #8, respectively. The Chinese EV market and manufacturers are hand in hand growing in incredible rates and that is reflecting already in the global rankings, with these two joining the Top 8 Automotive Groups. In fact, if we were to consider Kandi and Volvo as part of Geely Group (Should we? Let the discussion begin), those two together would be #6, ahead of BMW, with 44.380 units in 2015 and 8% share. 

(1) - Includes Kandi and Volvo