Automotive News Is it possible to go 100% EV? - SIBEJO-

"Is it possible to go 100% Electric?" - It was a question i made myself a few months back, as i wandered of the feasibility of that endeavor, having one electric car is easy, when you have a gas/diesel vehicle as a second choice for longer trips, but what about going all electric? 

To get the answer, i have started to register my family daily trips, based on the assumption that we would have a smaller car, for commutes and other short distances, in this case the car chosen would be a Renault Zoe, while for longer distances, the choice would necessarily be a larger car, with a longer range (Think Chevrolet Bolt, Leaf II), with the hypothetical choice being the Tesla Model 3.

To keep things safe in terms of range and usability, despite the Zoe having a 240 kms NEDC range, we would only consider it as having 120 kms range and the Model 3 some 250 kms, that way we would always would have a significant amount of extra-range for unexpected situations.

All trips were classified in one of four categories: 

* Commutes (20 kms or less);

* Small trips (Between 21 to 120 kms);

* Average trips (120 to 250 kms);

* Long trips (More than 250 kms).

The first two were considered suitable for both cars, while the larger ones were only considered fit for the Model 3.

Having registered the daily trips of our current ICE cars (One city car, other suited for longer trips) over a period of little more than three months, these were some conclusions we came to have:

City car "Zoe" 

- 81% of the trips were commutes, usually going to work, groceries, or other small trips around the neighborhood;

- 19% were small trips, usually going to traffic-congested Lisbon or other places where it would be hard to get easy parking;

The conclusion is the surprisingly high number of commutes, which is where the electric car feels most at ease, with no trips beyond 120 kms being made and no need for charging on the road. 

Is it possible to have an EV as a city car? YES, for my needs it is more than enough.

Larger car "Model 3"

- 22% of the travelling with the larger car were commutes, 48% were small trips, 22% average trips and only 9% were long trips;

With more diversified type of travelling, the Model 3 has a more challenging role to play, if commutes and small trips are nothing to scare a 250 kms range car, for average trips (121 - 250 kms), you have to make some calculations on the actual kilometers you will make on the trip and if there is fast charging along the road, Just in Case. 

The most challenging part of the equation are the longer, over 250 kms, travels.

We have made three and here are their (short) stories:

1 - Touring inland during one day, with 512 kms made. The first leg took 247 kms, mostly made on highway or mountain roads, at this stage the Model 3 would presumably be close to running empty of juice, but nothing to fear as there was a EVSE close and while we were touring the town, the car would have time to recharge just enough range to get into the Chademo Charger (Within a service station), little less than 100 kms away in the returning trip. Having reached the Chademo charger, we then would have to wait 45 minutes to an hour for the car battery to fill up (Or close), driving the remaining trip home without any range-anxiety. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station.

2 - Visiting Folks and family, 260 kms made. With the folks house some 230 kms away, that would't count as long-range-endangering-trip, but with other stops projected in the same day and part of the trip made on the highway, it could be a close call. Time to be resourceful then. While we were having lunch and putting conversation in place, the Model 3 would also have time to recover some juice in the domestic socket of my parents garage, enough to give those 20-30 kms needed for the next stops. Unnecessary stops: None, just needed to ask for a plug while the car was resting.

3 - Touring North, 321 kms made in day one. With a Chademo Charger (In the same service station as in 1) somewhere in the middle of the trip, we stopped to fill up the car during some 45 minutes, doing the rest of the travelling without range concerns. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station. 

Summarizing, 89% of all trips could have been done by an electric car like the Renault Zoe without a sweat, with that percentage growing to 97% with the Tesla Model 3.

Of the remaining 3%, they were also feasible, but they would involve charging outside your home and depend on Fast Charging and the waiting periods that come with them. Many people, like myself, would see it as minor inconveniences, but for others it would be a deal breaker.

A small note, during this period, i have realized that the two electric cars, one household type of families, might have a constraint: There will be times when both cars need overnight charging and if you usually only have one garage place and the other stays out, it could become tricky to charge both at the same time...  

Automotive News EV Business Case - Tesla and BYD - SIBEJO-

Tesla and BYD - Forever Production Constrained?

I - Tesla

A lot has been said about Tesla, the american brand in the recent past has helped to change people's minds over electric cars, from slow-mobiles, a bit dorkey & nerdy, to become the ultimate cool, a bit like "Tesla might not be the most popular kid in the Automotive High school, but it is coolest".

Most recently it was in the mainstream media with its Model 3 and the disruptive force it promises to be (Could it be the first EV to beat the c*** out of mainstream ICE cars?), but with it came a Million Dollar Question: "Can Tesla handle it?"

There weren't that many launches from Tesla to evaluate future behaviors, but looking at the Model S (The Roadster doesn't count here, as it was at whole different scale and the Model X is still reaching cruise speed), the Model S went like this:   

2012 - 2.700 units, available only in North America;

2013 - 22.200 units, expanded to Europe (2nd Semester);

2014 - 31.200 units, expanded to China and RHD markets (2nd Semester);

2015 - 50.400 units.

We can see a limited number of units in the initial year, with the numbers jumping in the first full production year to 22.200 units, then increasing 40% in the second full year and 60% into the third year, with the market expansion taking place over the years, with the peculiar fact that production seems to be always behind demand levels...Something made on purpose?

In the Model 3, Tesla will have the advantage of having already an oiled production and delivery system, with numbers probably reaching 150k units Model S/X in 2017, but by that time the reservations will be so huge  (600k? 700k?), that the ramp up has to be steep in order to satisfy such high level of demand, so my take on the Model 3 Production levels are:

2017 - 7.500 units, available only in North America;

2018 - 100.000 units, expanding to Europe (2nd Semester);

2019 - 250.000 units, expanding to China (New factory?) and RHD markets (2nd Semester);

2020 - 500.000 units.

Assuming that only half of the reservations transform into actual deliveries (I think it will be higher than that), someone that makes a reservation today, April 29th, will receive its Model 3 around...The second semester of 2019. It will be a looong wait...

II - BYD

Something of a Unsung Hero in the EV Scene, the progression of the chinese brand has been nothing short of spectacular in the last years:

2013 - 2.900 units;

2014 - 18.400 units;

2015 - 61.700 units.

And the sales targets set for the next years are also worthy of awe: 

2016: 150.000 units;

2017: 300.000 units;

2018: 600.000 units.

As we can see, far more aggressive targets than Tesla, which must be at around 300k in 2018...

One would think that these growth rates would be impossible to achieve only with the chinese market and BYD would finally start to export in significant numbers, but in the end, i believe the EV market in China will grow so fast that it will absorb all of the BYD plug-in production and frustrate their own export plans, let's look at the last numbers of the chinese EV Market: 

2013 - 14.000 units;

2014 - 60.000 units;

2015 - 190.000 units.

Extraordinary growth rates, right? Now considering that the market only doubles in the next few years...

2016 - 400.000 (Projected);.

2017 - 800.000 (Projected);

2018 - 1.600.000 (Projected).

Considering that BYD has had historically at least 30% of the Chinese EV market all to itself, it won't be difficult for the chinese brand to see its production almost all absorbed by its domestic market, leaving little for export plans.

That is unless BYD decides to go all Tesla and make their customers wait several months for their car...

Automotive News The Fast Charging Standards Race - SIBEJO-

Introduction

Back in the early days of the Third Age of the Electric Car, the need for range and the ability to go long distances in a 100% electric car was a hot topic, because EV's needed to get out of their natural habitat (Metropolitan Areas) and avoid mistakes of past lives.

One of the easiest ways to increase the pure electric cars ability to go farther, is through Fast-Charging, a sort of refueling of a gas car, but made in an EV, you arrive at a predetermined place, refuel/charge and minutes later, you can resume your journey, this time with a full tank/battery.

The first to establish a standard protocol for these kind of machines were the Japanese, in 2010, having named it CHAdeMO, an abbreviation of "CHARge de MOve", or "Move by Charge", with the charging rate usually set at around 50kW, but it can go up to 62.5 kW. 

The network quickly expanded in Japan, having already 582 Stations in March 2011, providing quick charging to the Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi I-Miev, as well as to a number of other pilot-mode models.

In 2012, around the same time the Model S was launched, Tesla started to deploy their Supercharger stations, it was a necessity for the new model owners for their quick charge, because the Model S had batteries three or four times larger the regular BEV, so they needed also a three to four times higher charging rate to refill batteries, hence the 120 kW-capable Supercharger, it operates a bit like Apple, as other manufacturers are not compatible with them.

Finally, in 2013 a new Fast-Charging protocol emerged in Europe, the CCS, or Combined Charging System, which allows for a smaller plug and is allegedly more flexible to develop to higher charging rates than the CHAdeMO.

This new standard is supported by Ford, General Motors and the German automakers, competing with CHAdeMO for a Golden Standard in EV Fast Charging.

The Race

            Number of EV's sold per type of Fast Charger

Year	Chademo	CCS	Tesla
2011	33301
2012	38852		2721
2013	72701	3391	22442
2014	100280	25521	31655
2015	105504	45177	50567

As is possible to see, Chademo (still) has the lead, having sold more than CCS and Tesla together, but the growth has stalled in 2015, while the other two continued to expand rapidly, and that despite the fact that CCS has been hampered by brands that are behind it are focusing on plug-in hybrids, where they don't include CCS.

2017 and 2018 will be all important years in the race between Chademo and CCS, as the Nissan Leaf will defend its lead over the CCS-compatible Chevrolet Bolt, Ford plug-ins and the German new BEV's.

A curious take on this Fast Charging standards race is given by the Hyundai-Kia Group, if the Kia Soul EV is playing by the Chademo team, the new Hyundai Ioniq EV has joined the adversary team...A change of mind by the Group or are they playing it safe, having players in both teams?

Finally, the Tesla SC is not intended to fight the other two, but as with its vehicles, the ever-expanding network and top-of-the-range charging abilities, it has carved a special (And desired) place in the market, a bit like Apple has done in the software world.